April 21, 2020  |  

Combining Viral Genetics and Statistical Modeling to Improve HIV-1 Time-of-infection Estimation towards Enhanced Vaccine Efficacy Assessment.

Knowledge of the time of HIV-1 infection and the multiplicity of viruses that establish HIV-1 infection is crucial for the in-depth analysis of clinical prevention efficacy trial outcomes. Better estimation methods would improve the ability to characterize immunological and genetic sequence correlates of efficacy within preventive efficacy trials of HIV-1 vaccines and monoclonal antibodies. We developed new methods for infection timing and multiplicity estimation using maximum likelihood estimators that shift and scale (calibrate) estimates by fitting true infection times and founder virus multiplicities to a linear regression model with independent variables defined by data on HIV-1 sequences, viral load, diagnostics, and sequence alignment statistics. Using Poisson models of measured mutation counts and phylogenetic trees, we analyzed longitudinal HIV-1 sequence data together with diagnostic and viral load data from the RV217 and CAPRISA 002 acute HIV-1 infection cohort studies. We used leave-one-out cross validation to evaluate the prediction error of these calibrated estimators versus that of existing estimators and found that both infection time and founder multiplicity can be estimated with improved accuracy and precision by calibration. Calibration considerably improved all estimators of time since HIV-1 infection, in terms of reducing bias to near zero and reducing root mean squared error (RMSE) to 5-10 days for sequences collected 1-2 months after infection. The calibration of multiplicity assessments yielded strong improvements with accurate predictions (ROC-AUC above 0.85) in all cases. These results have not yet been validated on external data, and the best-fitting models are likely to be less robust than simpler models to variation in sequencing conditions. For all evaluated models, these results demonstrate the value of calibration for improved estimation of founder multiplicity and of time since HIV-1 infection.


April 21, 2020  |  

Current advances in HIV vaccine preclinical studies using Macaque models.

The macaque simian or simian/human immunodeficiency virus (SIV/SHIV) challenge model has been widely used to inform and guide human vaccine trials. Substantial advances have been made recently in the application of repeated-low-dose challenge (RLD) approach to assess SIV/SHIV vaccine efficacies (VE). Some candidate HIV vaccines have shown protective effects in preclinical studies using the macaque SIV/SHIV model but the model’s true predictive value for screening potential HIV vaccine candidates needs to be evaluated further. Here, we review key parameters used in the RLD approach and discuss their relevance for evaluating VE to improve preclinical studies of candidate HIV vaccines.Crown Copyright © 2019. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.


April 21, 2020  |  

Vaccine-induced protection from homologous tier 2 SHIV challenge in nonhuman primates depends on serum-neutralizing antibody titers.

Passive administration of HIV neutralizing antibodies (nAbs) can protect macaques from hard-to-neutralize (tier 2) chimeric simian-human immunodeficiency virus (SHIV) challenge. However, conditions for nAb-mediated protection after vaccination have not been established. Here, we selected groups of 6 rhesus macaques with either high or low serum nAb titers from a total of 78 animals immunized with recombinant native-like (SOSIP) Env trimers. Repeat intrarectal challenge with homologous tier 2 SHIVBG505 led to rapid infection in unimmunized and low-titer animals. High-titer animals, however, demonstrated protection that was gradually lost as nAb titers waned over time. An autologous serum ID50 nAb titer of ~1:500 afforded more than 90% protection from medium-dose SHIV infection. In contrast, antibody-dependent cellular cytotoxicity and T cell activity did not correlate with protection. Therefore, Env protein-based vaccination strategies can protect against hard-to-neutralize SHIV challenge in rhesus macaques by inducing tier 2 nAbs, provided appropriate neutralizing titers can be reached and maintained. Copyright © 2018 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.


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